Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
